This coming November, the gubernatorial and senatorial elections in Pennsylvania will present opportunities for gains by both Democrats and Republicans. The Keystone State voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, both wins coming with slim margins as Pennsylvania remains an increasingly competitive battleground. Republicans hope to gain control of the governor’s mansion, while Democrats have been eyeing Republican Senator Pat Toomey’s seat as a possible pick-up come November. Pennsylvania is a highly competitive toss-up state and will be a focus of the Phillips Academy Poll’s coverage of the 2022 midterms.
In Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial election, incumbent Democrat Tom Wolf is term-limited, opening the race for both parties. Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro has emerged as the presumptive nominee for the Democrats, with the party’s endorsement and no significant opposition. Meanwhile, the Republican nomination is contested by many candidates, including former Congressman and Mayor Lou Barletta and longtime State Senator Jake Corman. With several possible nominees and ample time before the primaries in May, it is too early to distinguish a clear frontrunner among the Republicans.
In the Senate race, incumbent Republican Pat Toomey is not seeking re-election either. Democratic Pennsylvania lieutenant governor John Fetterman currently leads the Democratic primary polls, trailed by U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb and State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta. Prominent GOP candidates include Mehmet Oz, a TV celebrity and surgeon, Carla Sands, the Trump administration’s Ambassador to Denmark, and Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive endorsed by Senator Ted Cruz and several former Trump administration officials.