The Phillips Academy Poll, the nation’s first high-school-run public opinion poll, has correctly predicted 100% of Senate tossups. The poll successfully predicted the results of Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire’s senatorial races, as well as the New Hampshire governor’s race.
Despite the overwhelming majority of media outlets and polling organizations predicting an oncoming Republican sweep in the House and Senate, the Phillips Academy Poll’s methodology was able to correctly forecast the actual results, including a surprising upset in Nevada, yielding a perfect record polling the Senate.
Nevada
Phillips Academy Poll conducted a survey of 1052 Nevada residents on October 22nd and 23rd and correctly predicted the victory of incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto over Republican challenger Adam Laxalt. However, most pollsters, including Emerson, Trafalgar, YouGov/CBS, and FiveThirtyEight, found Laxalt with the edge. On November 12th, after days of uncertainty, Clark County reported the results of 23,000 ballots, yielding a 1% lead for Cortez Masto and causing the AP to call the race in her favor. The Phillips Academy Poll found Cortez Masto up by 2%.
Arizona
Phillips Academy Poll surveyed 985 residents on October 29 and 30 and found incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly up 1% against Republican Blake Masters. After Maricopa County released election results on November 11th, the Associated Press and other news networks called the race for Kelly by just under 5%. As the Poll predicted, Arizona’s senate seat remained blue, contrary to other pollsters’ results.
New Hampshire
The Phillips Academy Poll correctly predicted New Hampshire’s Senate and gubernatorial races. The poll surveyed 1056 likely New Hampshire voters on November 5th and 6th, and found Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan leading Republican Don Bolduc by 4%, with Libertarian candidate Jeremy Kauffman polling at 2% of the overall vote. On election night, the senatorial race was called in Hassan’s favor by 9% and Kauffman took exactly 2% of the vote. The poll found incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu beating Democratic challenger Tom Sherman by 22%. On election night, the race was called in Sununu’s favor by 16%.
Notes
Phillips Academy Poll incorrectly predicted Democrat Steve Sisolak leading winner Joe Lombardo in the Nevada gubernatorial race. The poll also incorrectly found Republican Kari Lake leading Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in the Arizona gubernatorial race.
The Phillips Academy Poll intends to conduct a likely voter poll of the Georgia Senate run-off election between Republican Herschel Walker and Senator Raphael Warnock on December 3rd and 4th.