Georgia is once again on everyone’s mind, drawing national attention as the senate race between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker heads to a runoff. From November 26 to 27, Phillips Academy surveyed 862 Georgia likely voters, to sample public opinion.
The Phillips Academy Poll, hot off a 100% record polling the Senate, finds Herschel Walker leading Raphael Warnock by 1%. Importantly, the 1% lead is within the margin of error (3.3%) and is significantly less than the number of undecided voters (5%).
Critical to Walker’s slight advantage are his narrow leads among independents and suburban voters. Walker maintains a 3% lead among independents, as well as a 3% lead among suburban voters—and, in past Georgia elections, these swing demographics have determined the outcome. Additionally, as expected, Walker leads among male voters (50%), white voters (66%), and rural voters (64%), while Warnock leads among female voters (53%), voters with college degrees (56%), low-income voters (61%), and Black voters (84%).
In this year’s general election, Warnock and Walker took 49.4% and 48.5% of the vote respectively, with neither candidate reaching 50%. In the concurrently-held gubernatorial election, Republican Brian Kemp won reelection with an outright majority. Though once a reliably red state, in 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia by 0.2%, and in a 2021 senate runoff, both Warnock and Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated their Republican opponents.
Prior to running for Senate, Herschel Walker, a former NFL player, served as co-chair for Kelly Loeffler’s 2020 Senate campaign. With an endorsement from Donald Trump, Walker plans to increase American energy independence, promote pro-life legislation, secure the border, and back police departments. While Walker’s campaign strongly advocates for pro-life legislation, he has faced scrutiny surrounding his actions as a father, and alleged reports of paying women he impregnated to have abortions.
Raphael Warnock, the incumbent Democratic senator, took office in 2021 after defeating Kelly Loeffler in a special election. Warnock’s campaign focuses on issues such as promoting infrastructure improvement and expanding education and health care. He also advocates for protecting the LGBTQ community and reproductive rights. Prior to winning his seat, Warnock was a preacher.
This year, within a month of election day, The Phillips Academy Poll boasted a 100% record polling the Senate. Most notably, Phillips Academy defied most other pollsters by predicting Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto’s win in Nevada. After the votes were tallied, Cortez Masto did indeed emerge victorious, allowing the Democrats to clinch Senate control.
The Georgia runoff poll was conducted with text messages to mobile phones and interactive voice response calls to landlines. See the methodology here.
This poll was made possible by a grant from the Abbot Academy Fund, continuing Abbot’s tradition of boldness, innovation, and caring.