The Phillips Academy Poll—America’s first high-school-led public opinion poll—concluded its inaugural year with many great calls, as well as a few blunders. This article will deconstruct what went right and what went wrong.
The Phillips Academy Poll, hot off a 100% record polling the Senate, finds Herschel Walker leading Raphael Warnock by 1%. Importantly, the 1% lead is within the margin of error (3.3%) and is significantly less than the number of undecided voters (5%).
The poll successfully predicted the results of Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire’s senatorial races, as well as the New Hampshire governor’s race.
In the race for senator, incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan is leading Republican Don Bolduc by 4%. In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Chris Sununu is leading Democrat Tom Sherman by 22%.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is leading Republican challenger Blake Masters by 1%. Republican Kari Lake leads Democrat Katie Hobbs by 11% in the Arizona gubernatorial election.
Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is leading by 2% against Republican Adam Laxalt in the race for senator. Democrat Steve Sisolak is leading by 5% against Republican Joe Lombardo in the race for governor.
Democrat John Fetterman is leading by 2.0% against Republican Mehmet Oz in the race for senator. Democrat Josh Shapiro is narrowly leading by 3.4% against Republican Doug Mastriano in the governor race.
The Phillips Academy Poll found Republican Herschel Walker leading incumbent Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock by 1.6% in the 2022 Georgia senate election, which is less than the poll’s margin of error.
In a hypothetical matchup for governor, The Phillips Academy Poll found Ron DeSantis leading Charlie Crist by 0.7%, less than the poll’s margin of error, with a significant number of voters still undecided.
The Phillips Academy Poll found Chris Sununu leading by 48.4% in a hypothetical gubernatorial election against Tom Sherman. Chris Sununu, the incumbent Republican Governor, is running for his fourth term.